Pre-tourney Rankings
Sun Belt
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 Texas Arlington 0.6%   23 - 8 14 - 4 23 - 8 14 - 4 +6.2      +3.8 74 +2.4 99 71.2 92 +7.3 75 +5.4 1
128 Georgia St. 0.0%   18 - 12 12 - 6 18 - 12 12 - 6 +1.9      +0.5 156 +1.4 126 66.4 217 +2.1 129 +2.3 2
129 Troy 100.0%   15   20 - 14 10 - 8 20 - 14 10 - 8 +1.8      +3.5 81 -1.7 222 68.8 143 +0.4 152 +0.5 7
136 Arkansas St. 0.0%   19 - 12 11 - 7 19 - 12 11 - 7 +1.4      +1.3 134 +0.1 177 65.1 247 +2.2 123 +0.6 6
151 Louisiana 0.0%   19 - 12 10 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 8 +0.6      +4.8 57 -4.2 290 76.2 26 +1.6 137 +0.4 8
174 Texas St. 0.0%   18 - 13 11 - 7 18 - 13 11 - 7 -0.3      -1.6 211 +1.3 130 56.7 346 -0.5 170 +1.5 3
181 Georgia Southern 0.0%   16 - 14 11 - 7 16 - 14 11 - 7 -0.7      +1.5 128 -2.2 237 68.0 171 +0.4 153 +1.2 4
201 Coastal Carolina 0.0%   14 - 17 10 - 8 14 - 17 10 - 8 -2.2      -1.8 217 -0.5 187 69.2 131 -1.2 184 +0.7 5
235 Arkansas Little Rock 0.0%   13 - 17 6 - 12 13 - 17 6 - 12 -4.6      -4.8 291 +0.2 173 59.8 329 -4.3 236 -5.6 10
241 South Alabama 0.0%   12 - 18 7 - 11 12 - 18 7 - 11 -4.9      -3.7 268 -1.2 202 70.6 105 -4.2 233 -2.9 9
260 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   7 - 24 2 - 16 7 - 24 2 - 16 -5.8      -5.0 293 -0.8 193 63.1 284 -9.2 304 -12.4 12
272 Appalachian St. 0.0%   7 - 21 4 - 14 7 - 21 4 - 14 -6.7      -2.9 245 -3.8 280 71.6 85 -7.8 283 -7.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas Arlington 1.0 100.0
Georgia St. 2.0 100.0
Troy 6.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 3.0 100.0
Louisiana 6.0 100.0
Texas St. 3.0 100.0
Georgia Southern 3.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 6.0 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 10.0 100.0
South Alabama 9.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 12.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Arlington 14 - 4 100.0
Georgia St. 12 - 6 100.0
Troy 10 - 8 100.0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 100.0
Louisiana 10 - 8 100.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 100.0
Georgia Southern 11 - 7 100.0
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 6 - 12 100.0
South Alabama 7 - 11 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 2 - 16 100.0
Appalachian St. 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Arlington 100.0% 100.0
Georgia St.
Troy
Arkansas St.
Louisiana
Texas St.
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Arkansas Little Rock
South Alabama
Louisiana Monroe
Appalachian St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Arlington 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1 0.4 0.0 99.4 0.6%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Troy 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 4.2 83.7 12.0
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Appalachian St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Arlington 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 100.0% 0.7% 99.8% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.6 0.2
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0